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A change in the stock of tax-exempt debt could also affect the yield spread, as described above. Increased municipal borrowing reduces T ~ * *and thereby narrows the yield spread. The strict predictions described above about investor specialization in only one asset depend crucially upon that assumption of perfect certainty. When corporate debt, equity, and tax-exempt bonds are all risky assets, portfolio choices will not be determined solely by tax considerations. Auerbach and King (1983) discuss these issues in greater detail.

The “preferred habitat” model provides an account of why the implied tax rates on long- and short-term municipal debt may differ. However, it also emphasizes our lack of understanding of municipal financial policy, since it raises a puzzle: Why do municipalities issue long-term debt? If the upward-sloping tax-exempt term structure is partly due to the maturity preference of municipal bondholders, and high tax bracket investors prefer short-maturity bonds, then states and localities could reduce their borrowing burden by issuing short-term securities.

We also must measure when expectations changed. The equations reported in 30 James M. ” An alternative approach would recognize that in many cases information builds gradually over time. This could be implemented by defining indicator variables for the month labeled as the tax event and either the month before or the month afterward. I experimented with these different approaches, and found that the qualitative character of my results was unaffected by them. 2 have described how tax events affect the municipal yield spread.

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