By Mario Baldassarri
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Example text
What about investment? To compare trends in investment to trends in saving a measure of investment demand must be constructed that is independent of yields. This measure – “notional” demand for investment – reflects the level of investment that producers desire, at a given fixed yield. Obviously, at the global level, the quantity of investment is determined by the availability of saving, with interest rates adjusting so that the two are equal. But what would the demand for investment be if interest rates were not adjusting?
Indeed, beginning in the early years of 2000 there has been a large transfer of wealth and income from advanced countries to emerging countries. This is, of course, a very welcome process in many ways. However, this big transfer of wealth and income from OECD to emerging countries creates issues and frictions. This transition period definitely needs to be managed in order to go on to a new balance of power which is not only economical but also political. We have also seen aggressive monetary policies that could escalate into trade wars, and ultimately bring back prohibitionism and nationalism.
It is going to be a drag on growth in the United States but, nonetheless, in the face of all the other elements that appear to be already in good shape, it will not be a major issue, as long as it is handled properly. It is known that the sequester is basically a horizontal spending cut, so there may be an issue with the appropriateness of state expenses cuts. 8 also shows that the Euro Zone is still focused on de-leveraging the public sector, while China has room for fiscal policy to be used to stimulate the economy in case there should be a need.