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By National Research Council, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Committee on National Statistics, Panel on Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the Interim Armored Vehicle

The U.S. military try out and overview Command (ATEC) is liable for the operational checking out and review of military platforms in improvement. ATEC

requested that the nationwide study Council shape the Panel on Operational attempt layout and overview of the period in-between Armored car (Stryker). The cost to this panel used to be to discover 3 concerns about the IOT plans for the Stryker/SBCT. First, the panel used to be requested to ascertain the measures chosen to evaluate the functionality and effectiveness of the Stryker/SBCT compared either to requisites and to the baseline method. moment, the panel was once requested to study the try layout for the Stryker/SBCT preliminary operational try to determine if it is in keeping with top practices. 3rd, the panel was once requested to spot the benefits and downsides of recommendations for combining operational try out info with facts from different resources and kinds of use. In a prior record (appended to the present document) the panel offered findings, conclusions, and proposals touching on the 1st matters: measures of functionality and effectiveness, and attempt layout. within the present record, the panel discusses ideas for combining information.

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Additional info for Improved Operational Testing and Evaluation and Methods of Combining Test Information for the Stryker Family of Vehicles and Related Army Systems: Phase II Report

Sample text

Particularly if the number of failures is small, as expected, then combining information yields sharper conclusions regarding the upper limit for the failure probability p, especially the 95 percent upper limit. 3 If the observed data are not consistent with the prior information, then the conclusions regarding p will be intermediate between the two information sources. In the current example, when there are 10 failures in 20 trials, the results from combining information suggest much lower values of p than the observed data.

A system has 40 type A vehicles and 30 of type B. A developmental test has been run with miles of operation per vehicle ranging from 1,000 to 15,000 miles, with 10 failure modes discovered at various mileages. An operational test is then run with 24 vehicles, all of type A, with miles of operation now ranging from 500 to 2,000 miles. Four of the original 10 failure modes are observed, occurring at varying mileages but with a higher rate than in the developmental test. In addition, a failure mode is seen that was not present in the developmental test.

For purposes of comparison, the table also shows the uncombined maximum likelihood point estimate for p and upper confidence limits based on the binomial model and operational test data alone. The results illustrate the benefits of combining information. Particularly if the number of failures is small, as expected, then combining information yields sharper conclusions regarding the upper limit for the failure probability p, especially the 95 percent upper limit. 3 If the observed data are not consistent with the prior information, then the conclusions regarding p will be intermediate between the two information sources.

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