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By Detlev J. Hoch

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But what is more distressing is that of the 10 percent of high-tech companies that reach the IPO stage, most do not grow to real success. As Morgan Stanley reported in its 1998 Technology IPO Yearbook, only 4 percent of the analyzed 1,099 technology IPOs in the previous 17 years had created 67 percent of the $744 billion shareholder value appreciation. In other words, 96 percent of all high-tech IPOs produce only one-third of the overall value beyond the time of the IPO. Oracle and SAP among others, are well-known, but rather rare, success cases.

The industry did indeed grow beyond most Page xii expectations, into a multibillion-dollar business, and many new companies arrived in the market with great products. Nevertheless, very few of them succeeded over time. In fact, most software companies failedclosed their doors and disappearedbefore they even had a chance to really take off. ADV Orga, for instance, a midsize enterprise solutions software company, once had revenues bigger even than SAP, today's world market leader. Yet it ended up being sold in 1989, following huge losses.

12 Software tasks today range from controlling nuclear power plants, recognizing customer purchasing patterns, enabling stock trading, and running banking systems all the way to running cell phone systems and exploring for oil. Software is nothing but pure knowledge in codified form. Softwarenothing but pure knowledge in codified formlargely drives and enables today's economy. Paul Romer, an economist at Stanford University who specializes in growth theory and who was named one of America's 25 most influential people by Time magazine in 1997, told us: "The software industry is the best place to understand the changes that we have to make both in our business models and in our understanding of the economy.

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