By National Research Council, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies
Technological suggestions are key causal brokers of shock and disruption. within the contemporary prior, the U.S. army has encountered unforeseen demanding situations within the battlefield due partly to the adversary's incorporation of applied sciences now not ordinarily linked to weaponry. spotting the necessity to expand the scope of present expertise forecasting efforts, the place of work of the Director, safeguard learn and Engineering (DDR&E) and the security Intelligence service provider (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting destiny Disruptive applied sciences with supplying tips and perception on the right way to construct a continual forecasting process to foretell, research, and decrease the impression of the main dramatically disruptive applied sciences. the 1st of 2 stories, this quantity analyzes latest forecasting tools and strategies. It then outlines the required features of a complete forecasting method that integrates info from varied assets to spot very likely game-changing technological techniques and allows educated choice making by way of policymakers.
The committee's aim used to be to assist the reader comprehend present forecasting methodologies, the character of disruptive applied sciences and the features of a continual forecasting approach for disruptive know-how. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is an invaluable textual content for the dep. of protection, fatherland safeguard, the Intelligence neighborhood and different safety businesses around the nation.
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Halal, has been online since 1998. It has developed into a service billing itself as a “virtual think tank” and is providing a range of services for a fee. Like any such service, its success depends on the quality of the individuals it brings together and its effectiveness in integrating their combined judgment. The endurance and continuing refinement of Techcast suggests it is becoming more useful with time. Obsolescence Forecasting Occasionally, major technologies are made obsolete by fundamental advances in new technology.
Accuracy, although obviously desirable, is not necessarily required for a successful forecast. A better measure of success is the actionability of the conclusions generated by the forecast in the same way as its content is not as important as what decision makers do with that content. Since the purpose of a technology forecast is to aid in decision making, a forecast may be valuable simply if it leads to a more informed and, possibly, better decision. A forecast could lead to decisions that reduce future surprise, but it could also inspire the organization to make decisions that have better outcomes—for instance, to optimize its investment strategy, to pursue a specific line of research, or to change policies to better prepare for the future.
Accessed April 6, 2009. 2 Existing Technology Forecasting Methodologies Introduction Technology Forecasting Defined If individuals from disparate professional backgrounds were asked to define technology forecasting, chances are that the responses would be seemingly unrelated. Today, technology forecasting is used widely by the private sector and by governments for applications ranging from predicting product development or a competitor’s technical capabilities to the creation of scenarios for predicting the impact of future technologies.